Corn Crop Increase Surprises

AgWired AgNewsWire, AgWired Energy, AgWired Precision, Audio

USDA surprised many with the crop production forecast out this month estimating a two percent increase from last month for corn.

Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 175.4 bushels per acre, up 3.6 bushels from the October forecast and up 0.8 bushel from 2016. If realized, this will be the highest yield on record for the United States.

“It’s a major surprise for the trade to see a production increase this large for corn,” said Brian Hoops, Midwest Market Solutions, during the MGEX crop commentary call. “It really is hard to make sense that this yield number would be justified by crop ratings, which all summer were near 10 year low ratings.”

Listen to Hoops’ corn commentary here: Brian Hoops, Midwest Market Solutions

The soybean forecast was lowered by one percent this month compared to October, but still a record at 4.43 billion bushels. Cotton production was increase by one percent to 21.4 million 480-pound bales, 25 percent more than last year. Yield is expected to average a record 900 pounds per harvested acre.

Orange production took less of a hit than expected from last month’s hurricane, but still down four percent overall and seven percent from last month. Compared to last year, orange production is down 19 percent overall and 27 percent for Florida.

Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 21.0 million boxes (945,000 tons), down 9 percent from last month and down 36 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 29.0 million boxes (1.31 million tons), is down 6 percent from last month and down 19 percent from last season’s final utilization.